When the final whistle blew on Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season, the New England Patriots stood alone atop the AFC East — undefeated in their last nine games, 9-2-0, and riding a wave of momentum no one saw coming. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins, once considered Super Bowl contenders, now sit at 11th in the AFC playoff picture, barely clinging to hope after a brutal stretch of losses. It’s not just a slump. It’s a collapse.
Who’s Really Running the AFC?
The Indianapolis Colts lead the AFC South at 8-1-0, a surprise to nearly everyone who picked them to finish last. Their offense, led by rookie QB Jordan Travis, has exploded since Week 5 — scoring 30+ points in five straight games. But the real story is in the East. The Patriots, under new head coach Jerod Mayo, have transformed from a rebuilding project into a disciplined, turnover-free machine. They’ve allowed just 14.8 points per game since Week 4 — the best defensive stretch in the league.The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-3-0 in the AFC North, but their schedule gets brutal after Week 12. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs, still the top seed at 9-1-0, are quietly coasting — resting starters in Week 10 after a 41-17 win over the Chargers. They don’t need to win every game. They just need to stay healthy.
Why the Dolphins Are Falling Apart
The Miami Dolphins are 5-5-0, but their playoff odds have cratered. They’re behind the Baltimore Ravens (10th), ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals (12th), and well out of range of the top four. Their defense has collapsed — giving up 31.4 points per game over the last five weeks. Their offensive line? A sieve. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown seven interceptions in the last three games, and his confidence is visibly shaken.Here’s the thing: they still have a path. Beat the Buffalo Bills next week? Maybe. Win out? Possibly. But they’re playing catch-up against teams with better records, better health, and better coaching. The Ravens, by contrast, are peaking. Lamar Jackson is playing like a MVP again, and their defense is forcing 2.8 turnovers per game. That’s not luck. That’s execution.
The NFC: Eagles Lead, Commanders Collapse
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles are the class of the league — 8-2-0, +33 point differential, four-game win streak. Their running game, led by Saquon Barkley, is averaging 146.6 yards per game — second in the NFL. They’re not flashy. But they’re efficient. And they’re dangerous.Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are in freefall. 3-8-0. Six straight losses. -60 point differential. Their offensive line has allowed 29 sacks this season — the most in the league. Their quarterback situation? A mess. Sam Howell is benched. Taylor Heinicke is injured. They’re now on their third starter in five weeks. Fans aren’t just frustrated. They’re angry. The team’s social media accounts were flooded with #FireMikalBridges after their 31-14 loss to the New York Giants last Sunday.
The New York Giants, meanwhile, are 2-9-0 — and winless on the road. But they’ve shown flashes. Quarterback Tommy DeVito threw for three touchdowns against Washington. The defense held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 17 points last week. Hope isn’t dead. It’s just buried under a mountain of losses.
What’s Next? Flexible Scheduling and the Road to January
The NFL’s flexible scheduling kicks in after Week 13. That means the games you’re watching in Week 17 — yes, the ones on Saturday — could be completely different from what’s scheduled today. Two games will be moved to Saturday night, likely the ones with playoff implications. The rest? Thursday, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night. The league doesn’t want to lock in matchups too early. They want drama. They want relevance.Week 18? Even bigger. Two games on Saturday — 4:30 PM ET and 8:00 PM ET — will determine division titles and wild-card spots. The rest on Sunday. And here’s the kicker: no one knows who’s playing whom yet. The NFL waits until after Week 17 to announce the schedule. That’s intentional. It’s a power move. It keeps teams fighting. It keeps fans glued.
Key Stats That Tell the Real Story
- Patriots: 9-2-0, 14.8 PPG allowed since Week 4 — best in NFL
- Dolphins: 5-5-0, 31.4 PPG allowed over last 5 games — 28th in NFL
- Eagles: 8-2-0, 146.6 rushing yards/game — 2nd in league
- Commanders: 3-8-0, -60 point differential — worst in NFC
- Colts: 8-1-0, 4 straight wins — most surprising team in AFC
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Miami Dolphins still make the playoffs?
It’s mathematically possible, but highly unlikely. The Dolphins need to win all four of their remaining games and hope for at least three losses from the Ravens, Bengals, and Raiders. Their current point differential (-12) is the worst among all AFC teams with a winning record. Even if they win out, they’d need help from teams like the Chargers and Broncos — who are also fighting for spots. The odds are under 15%, per ESPN’s playoff simulator.
Why are the Patriots so good this year?
It’s defense, discipline, and depth. New England’s front seven is the most consistent in the league, with Matt Judon and Christian Barmore combining for 14 sacks. Their secondary has only allowed 18 touchdown passes all season — lowest in the AFC. Offensively, they’ve minimized mistakes — just six turnovers in 11 games. And their coaching staff has mastered game management. They’ve won three games by seven points or less — all by controlling the clock and limiting penalties.
What’s the biggest surprise in the NFC?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At 6-4-0, they’re tied for the NFC South lead despite losing their starting QB, Baker Mayfield, to a season-ending injury in Week 5. Backup Ben Skowronek has stepped up, and their defense has improved dramatically — allowing just 19.8 points per game since Week 6. They’re not flashy, but they’re winning. And that’s all that matters in January.
How does flexible scheduling affect playoff teams?
It gives the NFL control over which games matter most in late December. Teams with playoff implications are often moved to Sunday night or Saturday, maximizing viewership. That means a team like the Dolphins could be forced to play a must-win game on a short week if they’re flexed into a Sunday night slot after Week 16. It adds pressure — and unpredictability. For teams fighting for seeding, it’s a double-edged sword.
Who’s the frontrunner for the AFC’s #1 seed?
The Kansas City Chiefs still hold the edge at 9-1-0, but they’ve got a tougher schedule ahead: home against the Bills, then road games in Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Patriots and Colts are both 1.5 games back. If Kansas City loses two of their final three, one of those teams could overtake them. Home-field advantage in the playoffs could hinge on the next four weeks.
Are the Commanders done for the season?
With six straight losses and a -60 point differential, they’re mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. But they’re not done. Their remaining schedule includes games against the Giants, Panthers, and Falcons — all struggling teams. They have a chance to finish 5-12 instead of 3-14. That matters for draft position. And for morale. Winning the final four games could be the foundation for a rebuild in 2026.
